In a short week leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 8 basis points. The 30-year mortgage rate followed suit, rising 9 basis points to 4.03 percent. This increase marks the first week since 2015 that mortgage rates have risen above 4 percent.

Over the last two weeks the 30-year mortgage rate jumped 40 basis points to 3.94 percent, almost identical to the 39 basis point increase in the 10-year Treasury yield. If rates stick at these levels, expect a final burst of home sales and refinances as ‘fence sitters’ try to beat further increases, then a marked slowdown in housing activity.

This week’s survey reflects pre-election market conditions. As a result, the 30-year mortgage rate increased to 3.57 percent, only 3 basis points higher than last week’s level. On Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield closed above 2 percent, about 25 basis points higher than its pre-election value and its highest yield since January. At this point, it is too soon to tell whether Treasuries will hold this new level or if the mortgage rate will increase as much over the coming week.